I’m going out on a limb, I know, but I’m going to say that I don’t think NASA will be ready to begin construction base on the moon in the year 2020 and, darn it, I know I shouldn’t speculate wildly like this, but I’m going to say that when they do land on the moon again, it’s going to have cost a lot more than originally planned.
Wesner Moise quickly reviews Brook’s “No Silver Bullets” assertion and claims “[t]hat assertion turns out to be pure nonsense, amply disproven by numerous advances in IDEs, languages, frameworks, componentization over the past few decades.”
I couldn’t disagree more. While the cumulative effects have given us more than an order of magnitude improvement, no single development has come close. I would say that the two single areas where there have been a close to an order-of-magnitude improvement are in user interfaces, with the rise of the compile-time visual form builders and HTML for text presentation, and network programming, with Java’s stream-based model being a huge step over sockets.
Outside of network and graphics programming, I don’t see the cumulative effects as being even two orders of magnitude. Bill Joy admits that he didn’t write vi in a weekend — that it tooks months. Let’s say it took him 100 days. You think you could do it in 1?
Apparently, the next version of Office is going to be 14, embracing the triskedecaphobic convention of buildings in skipping the sp-o-o-o-k-y ramifications of, you know, counting.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but when you get to the point where, despite your worldwide hegemony on office documents, you let superstitious nonsense hold sway because of potential sales-loss among particularly gutless 6-year-olds, you’ve got too much bureaucracy.